本文构建了中国和美国石油脆弱性的评价指标体系,运用熵权法对脆弱性指数中的指标赋权,根据2002-2012年指标数据,对中美两国石油脆弱性进行了评价和比较。结果表明：中国石油脆弱性的波动程度比美国大得多。其中,中国石油脆弱性呈波动上升趋势,美国石油脆弱性呈波动下降趋势。中美石油脆弱性波动程度的比较表明,建立完善的石油储备体系非常重要。

This paper constructs the evaluation index system of China and United States’ oil vulnerability and uses the entropy method weighting the vulnerability index and assesses the oil vulnerability between China and United States according to the index data over the period 2002-2012.The results show that the fluctuations of oil vulnerability in China are more than those of United States. Among them, China’s oil vulnerability represent increases tendency in fluctuation and United States’ oil vulnerability show a trend of fluctuating downward. The comparison of fluctuation in oil vulnerability between China and United States show that it is important to establish a perfect petroleum reserve system.

F416.22

国家自然科学基金资助项目“减排约束下的石油安全测度方法与仿真研究”（71271074）