在万方数据库中,搜集48个典型中成药品种从2002年到2010年间的科技投入项目数及论文综合影响因子作为研究样本,通过分析不同滞后年度下科技投入与论文产出指标之间的相关系数,判断科技投入对论文产出的起效时间。除去16个投入产出相关系数很小甚至为负的品种后,剩下的32个品种中有10个品种的科技投入当年起效,其余22个品种存在不同程度的滞后(迟滞时间平均值为2.88,方差为6.18)。本文提出的时效分析方法可量化评估科技投入起效的迟滞时间,为科技项目管理与评估提供考核参数,有助于更加客观有效地评估与管理科技项目。

The Science Technology (S T) projects and the comprehensive impact factor of the papers about 48 varieties of typical Traditional Chinese Medicines (TCMs), which were published in 2002-2010, were collected from WANFANG database. By analyzing the correlation coefficient between the S T projects in different lag years and the output index, the onset time of S T input was evaluated. Among the 32 varieties of TCM that excluded 16 varieties of small and negative correlative coefficients, S T worked for 10 varieties of TCMs in the same year and worked delay in different degree for other 22 varieties of TCMs. The average lag year and the variance of the lag year were 2.88 and 6.18, respectively. The proposed method for determining lag time of S T project could quantitatively evaluate the lag year of S T input, which could provide assessment parameters for the management and evaluation of S T projects. It is beneficial for evaluating and managing S T projects more objectively and effectively.

中医药行业科研专项,项目编号201307011