在分析技术转移系统体系结构的基础上,以系统动力学为工具,从技术提供方、技术接收方以及技术市场成交额三个方面构建北京市技术转移系统仿真模型。通过因果关系图分析技术转移系统变量之间的正负反馈关系。以2006年至2012年北京市统计年鉴和北京市技术市场年报为数据源,利用系统动力学流程图测算不同投入产出期中的技术投入产出率峰值,并根据测算出的投入产出率峰值期及其峰值预测2013-2022年北京技术市场成交额增长趋势和增长特点。

Based on analyzing the architecture of technology transfer system, we constructed the Beijing technology transfer simulation model with system dynamic theory, which typically included three perspectives, such as technique provider, technique receiver and technology market turnover. With causality diagram, we explored the complicated relationships among the relevant variables within Beijing technology transfer system. The data source in this paper was abstracted from Beijing Statistical Yearbook and Beijing Technology Market Statistics Annual Reports between 2006 and 2012. Taking advantage of system dynamics of flow chart, we could calculate the ratio of input to output, and identify the period in which the highest value generated. Furthermore, we predicted the Beijing technology market turnover between 2013 and 2022, as well as the progressing feature of the Beijing technology transfer.

N941.3

国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目）