低碳经济是气候变化背景下各国政府不可动摇的战略选择。自2010年国家设定天津市为低碳试点城市已近4年，验收其低碳成果，探索进一步绿色发展出路具阶段性意义。本文测算了天津市工业部门能源消耗碳排放结构，构建系统动力模型并进行3次情景预测。研究表明：当前发展模式下，2020年工业碳排放强度将比2005年降低40.08%，基本达到哥本哈根40%-45%的目标。但2015年比2010年下降13.18%，未实现天津市“十二五”17%的细化目标。通过调整工业结构，长期减排效果明显，2020年末减排强度为44%；加快技术进步后，无论是减排量还是减排效率，中长期效果都十分显著，到2020年减排强度达47.4%；而在优化工业结构、加快技术进步协调运作下，到2020年减排强度可达50%的高目标，且长期减排效果在2019年后凸显，其工业经济将逐步走上可持续发展道路。

Low-Carbon economy is the unshakable strategy for governments of every country in the context of global climate change. It has been four years since Tianjin was selected as one of the pilot cities for Low-Carbon development in China since 2010. It is meaningful to examine the achievement of Low-Carbon development, in order to provide guidance for exploration of further green development method. Based on the calculation and evaluation of the carbon emission structure of energy consumption in industrial departments in Tianjin, this essay built up the system dynamic model, and completed scenario forecasts for three times. It was indicated that the industrial carbon emission intensity would decrease by 40.08% from 2005's level by 2020 under the current development model, achieving the target of 40~50% as pledged in the Copenhagen Accord. But the carbon emission intensity would decrease by 13.18% from 2010's level by 2015, failing to achieve the refined target of 17% as stated in the 12th Five-Year Plan of Tianjin. Based on the scenario forecasts, effective emission reduction in long term can be achieved by adjustment of industrial structure, with an emission reduction intensity of 44% in 2020; and effective emission reduction both in medium and long terms can be achieved by acceleration of technical progress, with an emission reduction intensity of 47.4% in 2020. With the coordination of optimization of industrial structure and acceleration of technical progress, the emission reduction intensity of 2020 would achieve a high-target of 50%. Under such scenario, the effect of emission reduction in long term would be prominent after 2019, gradually leading the industrial economy to the path of sustainable development.

基金项目：国家社会科学基金“低碳城市物质流优化机制与对策研究”（12BGL128）；