Abstract:Low-Carbon economy is the unshakable strategy for governments of every country in the context of global climate change. It has been four years since Tianjin was selected as one of the pilot cities for Low-Carbon development in China since 2010. It is meaningful to examine the achievement of Low-Carbon development, in order to provide guidance for exploration of further green development method. Based on the calculation and evaluation of the carbon emission structure of energy consumption in industrial departments in Tianjin, this essay built up the system dynamic model, and completed scenario forecasts for three times. It was indicated that the industrial carbon emission intensity would decrease by 40.08% from 2005's level by 2020 under the current development model, achieving the target of 40~50% as pledged in the Copenhagen Accord. But the carbon emission intensity would decrease by 13.18% from 2010's level by 2015, failing to achieve the refined target of 17% as stated in the 12th Five-Year Plan of Tianjin. Based on the scenario forecasts, effective emission reduction in long term can be achieved by adjustment of industrial structure, with an emission reduction intensity of 44% in 2020; and effective emission reduction both in medium and long terms can be achieved by acceleration of technical progress, with an emission reduction intensity of 47.4% in 2020. With the coordination of optimization of industrial structure and acceleration of technical progress, the emission reduction intensity of 2020 would achieve a high-target of 50%. Under such scenario, the effect of emission reduction in long term would be prominent after 2019, gradually leading the industrial economy to the path of sustainable development.