技术进步能够有效降低非期望产出。本文为了探寻产业系统非期望产出与技术投入的具体关系,构建了融入技术进步因素的产业系统非期望产出强度线性模型,将之简化为半参数模型,同时结合非期望产出强度效用函数,形成动态汉密尔顿系统,从理论上证明了存在最优解,求解了能够最有效降低非期望产出强度的R D投入,并使用我国产业部门2001-2012年的数据对其进行实证分析,得出了我国大部分产业部门的最优R D投入强度,指出了快速实现综合减排目标的途径是加大传统产业的R D投入强度,分析了技术吸收和技术累积的效用,探讨了理论模型不适应的原因及改进方向。

The technology can effectively reduce the undesirable output. To investigate the mechanism of relation between undesirable output and technology input in the industry system, we constructed a linear model of industrial system undesirable output intensity including the factor of technology, and we simplified it as a semi-parameter model. Combining the semi-parameter model with an undesirable output intensity utility function, we formed a dynamic Hamilton system and proved the existence of an optimal solution with optimal R D input, which can effectively reduce the undesirable output intensity. With the Chinese industrial sectors’ data in 2001-2012, We carried on an empirical analysis, obtained the optimal R D input intensity of most industry sectors, pointed out the way to quickly realize the comprehensive emission reduction target is to increase the traditional industry R D input intensity. We also analyzed the cumulative technology absorption and the utility of the technique, discussed the reasons why the model does not good adapted and putted forward the direction of improvement.

F421

国家自然科学“基于非期望产出率熵变的产业系统减排机理及碳减排差别责任研究”(71173094)