本文以中国甘蔗四大优势产区为研究对象,应用2004-2013年《中国农产品成本收益资料汇编》中研究区域的农作物亩产、化肥用量、农药用量、农膜用量、燃料用量、灌溉费用的数据,并结合中国国家统计局网站2003-2012年的播种面积数据,对研究区域不同时空的碳汇能力与碳汇总量进行估算。得出以下结论：1、研究区域的甘蔗碳汇总量以及碳汇能力均呈波动上升趋势,其中碳汇能力和总量明显高于20世纪90年代,反映出21世纪后甘蔗单产提升、种植面积增加等趋势,以及产业受灾的情况；2、研究区域内的甘蔗产业碳排放呈上升趋势,其中化肥碳排放占总量最大,增加趋势也最明显,而燃料排放极低,表明农业投资力度呈加大趋势,但机械化水平还极低。

This research takes four advantageous regions of sugarcane in China as research objects, applying the statistics on crop yield, fertilizer use, pesticide use, membrane use, fuel consumption and irrigation costs in “The cost-benefit data of agricultural products in China (2004-2013)” and combining with the planting acreage (2003-2012) on National Bureau of Statistics of the People’s Republic of China, to estimate the capacity of carbon sequestration and the total amount of carbon sink in different space-time of research areas. It draws two conclusions: 1.The total amount of carbon emissions and the capacity of carbon sequestration of research areas show a wave rising trend and obviously better than the situation in the 1990s, which can indicates that the rising trend of sugarcane per unit yield, planting acreage and the disaster condition of sugarcane industry. 2. The amount of carbon emissions of sugarcane industry in research areas is on the rise, especially, the amount of fertilizer carbon emissions accounts for the largest proportion but also presents a conspicuous increasing trend. And the lowest fuel emission indicates the investment in agriculture is increasing, but the level of mechanization is still extremely low.

S566.1

国家社科基金