随着全球产业分工细化和创新模式改变,研发服务业应运而生,不断推动制造业向高端发展。台湾地区作为亚洲乃至全球最重要的制造业基地之一,自2004 年实施《研发服务业发展纲领及行动方案》以来,研发服务业与制造业的联动发展对当地经济发展贡献巨大。文章以台湾研发服务业与制造业实际生产总值的时间序列数据为样本,建立向量自回归模型进行单位根检验和协整分析,并与广东进行比较,结果表明台湾制造业是研发服务业的格兰杰因,反之不成立,且长期里两者存在均衡关系。广东研发服务业与制造业互为格兰杰因,但从长期来看两者未能形成一种稳定的联动关系。研究结果为广东产业转型升级提供了有益的借鉴。

With the global refinement of industrial specialization and change of innovation mode, Research and Development of Services emerge as the times require. Taiwan is one of the most important manufacturing bases in Asia as well as the world, since the implementation of "research and development services development program and action plan" in 2004, the interactive development of research and development services and manufacturing made tremendous contribution to local economy. Taking time series data of Taiwan research and development services and manufacturing’s real GDP, this paper applies vector auto-regression model to give Co-integration analysis and Granger test, and compared with the Guangdong. Results show that there are long-run Co-integration and Unidirectional causality between Taiwan research and development services and manufacturing, causality but without long-run Co-integration between Guangdong research and development services and manufacturing. The research provides a useful reference for industrial upgrading in Guangdong.

F127 ；F124.6

广东省对外科技合作项目“粤台科技服务业发展现状与合作前景研究”(2012B050300031)