[关键词]
[摘要]
文章首先对京津冀物流业碳排放量进行测算，然后对京津冀1998-2012年物流业碳排放驱动因素进行LMDI分解，并基于OECD脱钩模型计算碳排放脱钩指数，对京津冀物流业碳排放脱钩效应进行分析。结果表明：经济产出效应和人口规模效应对京津冀物流业碳排放增加具有一定的拉动作用，且经济产出效应为主要的正向驱动因素，而能源结构和能源效率效应对京津冀物流业碳排放增加具有一定的抑制作用；京津冀地区物流业碳排放存在着脱钩效应，且表现出一定的阶段性；在脱钩效应强弱转变过程中，能源效率效应起着关键作用。
[Key word]
[Abstract]
We calculate the carbon emissions of logistic industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region first, then study the driving factors of carbon emissions of logistics industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during the period from 1998 to 2012 with the LMDI decomposition model. The results showed that the economic output effect and population size effect have been playing significant roles in promoting carbon emissions growth of logistics industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the former is the main positive driving factor. The energy structure effect and the energy efficiency effect exhibit an significant inhibitory effect on the carbon emissions. Meanwhile，decoupling effect exists in the carbon emissions of logistics industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and present certain stages characteristics, the energy efficiency effect plays a key role in the transformation process of decoupling degree.
[中图分类号]
F252
[基金项目]
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目：“海洋经济与陆域经济协同发展机制及产业共生路径研究”（编号：13YJA630119）；天津市科技发展战略研究计划项目：“科技支撑引领天津市工业园区战略性新兴产业发展研究”（编号：12ZLZLZF08000）；教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目：“大型工业城市低碳发展的途径、模式及对策研究--以天津市为例”（编号：11YJA630046）
