京津冀物流业碳排放驱动因素及脱钩效应研究

Driving factors and decoupling effect of carbon emissions: study from logistics industry of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

摘要:

文章首先对京津冀物流业碳排放量进行测算，然后对京津冀1998-2012年物流业碳排放驱动因素进行LMDI分解，并基于OECD脱钩模型计算碳排放脱钩指数，对京津冀物流业碳排放脱钩效应进行分析。结果表明：经济产出效应和人口规模效应对京津冀物流业碳排放增加具有一定的拉动作用，且经济产出效应为主要的正向驱动因素，而能源结构和能源效率效应对京津冀物流业碳排放增加具有一定的抑制作用；京津冀地区物流业碳排放存在着脱钩效应，且表现出一定的阶段性；在脱钩效应强弱转变过程中，能源效率效应起着关键作用。

Abstract:

We calculate the carbon emissions of logistic industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region first, then study the driving factors of carbon emissions of logistics industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during the period from 1998 to 2012 with the LMDI decomposition model. The results showed that the economic output effect and population size effect have been playing significant roles in promoting carbon emissions growth of logistics industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the former is the main positive driving factor. The energy structure effect and the energy efficiency effect exhibit an significant inhibitory effect on the carbon emissions. Meanwhile，decoupling effect exists in the carbon emissions of logistics industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and present certain stages characteristics, the energy efficiency effect plays a key role in the transformation process of decoupling degree.