以我国2020年哥本哈根会议上承诺碳减排目标为背景,基于STIRPAT模型预测了32种减排方案下2020年碳排放强度值,结果显示：产业结构调整是未来能否实现目标的关键因素,在优化产业结构的政策下,一半以上的方案均能实现碳强度目标,并最终选择4个方案中的控制指标作为未来 “十三五”减排方案参考依据：人口年均增长率0.4%-0.72%、城市化率可提升至60%、GDP增速仍可控制在6%-8%之间、可加大服务业增加值比重至50%、单位GDP能耗降低了11.71%。在全国碳减排方案策略下,从人口、城市化率、GDP增速、单位GDP能耗以及服务业增加值比重的角度对我国30个省区的碳减排对策提出建议,为“十三五” 期间我国减排方案的制定提供参考依据和科学支撑。

Under the background of China’s commitment to carbon emissions reduction targets at the Copenhagen Conference in 2020,based on STIRPAT model, the values of 2020 carbon intensity was forecasted in 32 kinds of carbon reduction programs. The results showed that industrial structure adjustment is key factor to achieve carbon reduction targets. Under the optimization of industrial structure policy, carbon intensity targets would be achieved in more than half of the schemes. Finally, the control indexes in the four schemes were chosen as the references of 13th SFive Year Plan .Average annual population growth rate could be from 0.4% to 0.72 %.Urbanization rate could be up to 60%.GDP growth could be controlled between 6% and 8%. The proportion of service industry could be increased to 50%. Energy consumption per unit of GDP could be reduced by 11.71%.Based on the factors of the population, urbanization rate, GDP growth, energy consumption per unit of GDP and the added value of service industry, China"s 30 provinces of carbon reduction paths were discussed under the national carbon reduction plan strategy. It provided a reference and scientific support for making reduction programs of 13th Five Year Plan.

国家社会科学基金“低碳城市物质流优化机制与对策研究”(12BGL128)