项目组合的冲突风险评价模型

A Conflict Risk Assessment Model for Project Portfolio

摘要:

基于项目组合管理的流程，识别出不同阶段潜在的利益相关者之间的冲突风险，即目标冲突风险、资源分配冲突风险及合作冲突风险。采用模糊综合评价方法对项目组合的三类冲突风险进行评价。最后将评价模型应用于一个高新技术企业，算例分析的结果表明该模型可以有效得出三类冲突风险的风险评分，并且为企业的风险预防和控制提供指引，使其可以识别评分值最高、危害最大的冲突风险。

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to quantify the conflict risk of a project portfolio, so as to determine which conflict risk deserves greater managerial efforts. The conflict risks between stakeholders are identified in each phase of the process of project portfolio management, that is, objective conflict, resource allocation conflict, and cooperation conflict. Then, a fuzzy risk assessment model is proposed to evaluate the three kinds of conflict risks of a project portfolio. Finally, the proposed model is applied to a project portfolio in a high-tech enterprise. The numerical results show that this model can assess the three types of conflict risks effectively, and provide a roadmap for management team of a project portfolio to control the conflict risks which have high risk values.