火电在我国电源结构中占有重要地位，为我国的经济发展作出了卓越的贡献。本文梳理了我国火电产业的发展历程，运用产业生命周期理论，划分出火电产业的导入期、成长期、成熟期与衰退期，并从产业演化机理的角度分析了火电产业低碳化转型的路径。最后通过分析未来火电产业需求，探讨其发展方向。

Thermal power occupies a vital place in China’s power structure in the past, and made outstanding contributions to China’s economic development. This paper reviews the development of China's thermal power, and the introduction period, growth period, mature period and decline period of thermal power industry are divided with the theory of life cycle. Besides, this paper analyzes the path of low-carbon transformation of thermal power industry from the perspective of industrial evolution mechanism. In the end, this paper analyzes the future demand of thermal power industry to explore its development direction.

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国家自然科学基金项目（煤电能源供应链风险递展动因分析及风险控制模拟模型研究，71273090）;国家自然科学基金项目（我国减少清洁能源发电弃能的机制设计及其模拟模型研究，71573084）