调整一次能源消费结构,是促进京津冀碳强度下降、实现京津冀碳强度目标可供选择的有效途径之一。文章分析了2005年-2014年京津冀区域的国内生产总值(GDP)、一次能源消费总量及一次能源消费结构的演变趋势。在此基础上,首先,运用情景预测模型预测了2020年京津冀区域的GDP与一次能源消费总量；其次,运用马尔可夫链模型对2020年京津冀区域的一次能源消费结构进行预测,并且分情景对2020年京津冀区域的一次能源消费结构进行调整预测；最后,联立经济增速、一次能源消费总量、一次能源消费结构三个经济指标,组合形成27种不同情景,计算了各情景下一次能源消费结构调整促使京津冀碳强度下降的幅度,且对实现京津冀碳强度目标的贡献潜力。结果表明：各类情景下,一次能源消费结构调整均不同程度的促进了京津冀碳强度下降,且对实现京津冀碳强度目标具有不同程度的贡献潜力。实现京津冀碳强度目标,不能仅仅依靠对其一次能源消费结构的调整,相关政府部门仍需制定出台相关节能减排政策,积极采取一系列切实可行的措施,诸如淘汰落后产能,调整不合理的产业结构、引入先进的碳减排技术,提高能源综合利用效率等。

Adjusting the primary energy consumption structure is one of the effective ways for selection to promote a reduction in carbon intensity to realize carbon intensity targets of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. The research analyzed 2005 -2014 region"s evolution trend of gross domestic product GDP, a total energy consumption and primary energy consumption structure of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. Based on the analysis results, first of all, using scenario prediction model predict Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region GDP and the total energy consumption by 2020; secondly, using the Markov chain model predict the primary energy consumption structure of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region by 2020 and predict the adjustment of primary energy consumption structure of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region on 2020. Finally,simulte three indicators that economic growth rate, total energy consumption and energy consumption structure, formate 27 different scenarios, calculate decline range of primary energy consumption structure adjustment decreasing carbon intensity and potential contribution to achieve Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region carbon intensity targets under various scenarios .The results showed that all kinds of situations makes different degree potential contribution for carbon intensity target that adjustment of energy consumption structure to decreased the carbon intensity of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. To realize carbon intensity target of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region , not rely solely on the single path that the adjustment of the structure of primary energy consumption, the relevant government departments shall formulate and promulgate the carbon emission reduction policies, and actively take a series of practical measures, such as eliminate backward production capacity, adjust the irrational industrial structure, introduct the advanced technology to cut carbon emissions and improve energy utilization efficiency.

国家社会科学基金项目“基于城市群联动视角的京津冀协同减排路径与机制研究”(15BGL211)；教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“京津冀协同发展战略实施中若干重大问题研究”(15JZD021)。