面向碳汇供给的营林技术创新响应机理与系统仿真研究*

Simulation of Response Mechanism of Regional Silvicultural technique innovation in the Objective of Carbon Sequestration Supply

摘要:

森林碳汇是碳交易市场的第一大碳汇供给品种,碳汇供给目标下的营林技术创新是当前学者们研究的焦点问题。林权改革使得农户成为集体林区最大的经营主体,农户对碳汇经营目标的选择与响应是探寻碳汇供给目标下区域营林技术创新趋势的重要实践前提。本文基于农户决策过程的理性行为假设,运用系统极限理论构建了一个碳汇目标下区域营林技术创新的农户响应模型,并以中国南方集体林区浙江省杉木人工林地的营林技术创新响应机制为案例进行了仿真分析。结果表明：未来10a(2016-2025年)期间,碳价格将由目前的128元/吨上升至650元/吨,但在当前木材市场价格处于高位水平下,虽然碳价格逐年上升,可是除劣等地与中等地的农户对碳汇营林技术的创新响应概率最终能够达到0.8627之外,优等地的农户响应概率仍然为0.4814,即0.5以下,处于不响应状态,这说明未来碳价格的上升对优等地农户的营林技术创新响应并不敏感,优等地农户当前以木材为经营目标的传统营林技术模式不会发生明显改变。文章最后就所得结论的科学性进行了进一步探讨。

Abstract:

Forest carbon sequestration is the first large carbon sequestration supply varieties of the carbon market. Silvicultural technique innovation in the objective of carbon sequestration supply is the focus problem for scholars. Forest tenure reform makes the farmers become the main management subject in collective forest area. Farmer’s selection and response in the objective of carbon sequestration supply is the important practice premise to explore the regional forestland use change trend of carbon sequestration supply target. In this paper, based on the system limit theory, with a hypothesis of rational behavior of farmer’s decision process, builds a farmer’s response model of regional silvicultural technique innovation in the objective of carbon sequestration supply, then makes a simulation of the fir plantation of Zhejiang province of China southern collective forest region as a case. The results show that the carbon price will rise to 650 yuan / ton from the current 128 yuan / ton in the next 10 years (2016-2025), but at a high level of wood price in the current market, although the carbon prices increased, only the farmer’s response probability to the carbon silvicultural technique innovation in the inferior forestland and middle forestland reached 0.8627, the farmer’s response probability to the carbon silvicultural technique innovation in superior forestland remains 0.4814,which is lower than 0.5. This shows that the future carbon prices is not sensitive to the farmer in the superior forestland, and farmer’s forestland use mode in the objective of wood supply does not obviously change. Finally the scientific of this conclusions are further discussed in this paper.