本文经过专家调查提炼,选取能源互联网、大规模储能、新能源分布式发电、智能电网及特高压、大数据云计算和超导电缆等6项对国家电网公司产生深远影响的颠覆性创新技术,构建了颠覆性创新技术影响评价指标体系,并利用直觉模糊层次分析模型实现了对颠覆性创新技术的综合评价。模型首先通过直觉模糊互补判断矩阵确定两级评价指标的权重,在此基础上计算了综合评价得分,并引进直觉模糊距离对群体决策意见进行了一致性分析。最后,通过专家调查进行实证分析,得出了不同颠覆性创新技术对国家电网公司影响的不同程度,验证了评价指标和模型的科学性和有效性。

Based on the refinement of expert inquiry, six subversive innovation technologies, including energy internet, large scale energy storage technology, distributed generation of renewable energy, smart grid and ultra-high voltage, big data and cloud computing, and superconducting cable, are selected to analyze their impacts on State Grid Corporation. And this paper built an impact evaluation index system of subversive innovation technologies, and used intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process model to complete the comprehensive evaluation of these technologies. In this model, the weights of indexes were determined firstly based on intuitionistic fuzzy complementary judgement matrices. Then, the evaluation scores could be calculated, and the consistency of group minds could be analyzed with the introduction of intuitionistic fuzzy distance. Finally, by an empirical analysis, the impact results of these technologies were obtained, which verified the effectiveness and reasonability.

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国家自然科学基金(71271084)；国家电网公司总部科技项目(KJGW2015-020)；智能电网运营风险元扰动与传递理论模型及其应用