火电企业在发电过程中同时产生发电量和排污量,两者在物理量方面存在着固定比例的对应关系,且企业可同时参与发电权交易与排污权交易。为理顺发电量、排污量与上网电价、减排量以及企业利润之间的因果传递与反馈关系,本文综合考虑用电量、发电量、排污量、免费排污份额、发电权交易价格及排污权交易价格等因素,基于系统动力学模型对发电权与排污权组合交易进行了模拟仿真。结果表明,机组之间电量替换受到发电权交易价格与排污权交易价格的影响,而减少火电机组免费排污配额对火电机组排污具有抑制作用,但同时也会使机组利润减少；此外,发电权交易与排污权交易的实施对于火电上网电价不会产生影响,火电上网电价的变化主要受电煤价格的影响。

ABSTRACT: In the power generation process, the thermal power enterprises produce electricity and emission, there is a corresponding relationship between the two physical, so they can participate in generation right trading and emission trading at the same time. To rationalize the relationship of causality and feedback among power generation, emission, tariff, emission cuts and enterprises profit, overall considering such factors as the electricity consumption, power generation, emission, free emission share, the price of generation right trading and the price of emission trading based on the system dynamics model the generation right trading and emission trading simulated. The results show that the price of generation right trading and the price of emission trading have an influence on generation substitution, and reducing free emission share of thermal power enterprises not only inhabiting the emission of the plants but also reducing the profits of plants. Besides, the implementation of generation right trading and emission trading will not have an impact on tariff. The changes of tariff is mainly affected by the price of coal.

TM 73；F224

?基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目“基于节能减排的发电权与排污权组合交易模型”(71403163)；中国博士后科学基金项目“跨省区发电权与排污权组合交易模式选择及其利益分配” (2013M540910)；上海市哲学社科规划基金项目“基于节能减排的发电权与排污权组合交易优化模型及其利益分配”(2014BJB017)。