在全球经济深度调整背景下,特别是随着国内新近“供给侧结构性改革”的兴起,从全要素生产率(TFP)视角深入探讨创新驱动发展的路径具有重要价值。为此,本文以宁波市的序贯发展历程为关注焦点,通过分析并检验其中TFP发展的主要表征、典型路径及关键影响因子,以期总结经验得失,同时亦为提升城市发展TFP提供本土经验和决策启示。以索洛余值法测度宁波市经济增长中的TFP贡献率,研究发现,当前宁波经济增长主要依靠资本和劳动力要素驱动,TFP驱动经济发展的成效仍待提高。从促成经济增长的“输血”与“造血”两方面凝练TFP的发展路径,实证结果还显示,“造血式”路径中的人力资本和R D投入对TFP有促进作用,“输血式”路径中的出口贸易对TFP有促进作用,而进口贸易和FDI对TFP有抑制作用。进一步研究表明,对TFP的影响上,“造血式”路径指标和“输血式”路径指标的两两交互项均呈现显著的互补效应,这意味着,为实现创新驱动发展的目标,应协同推进“造血式”路径和“输血式”路径,最终在其间的有机关联互动中整体提升经济增长中TFP贡献率。

Under the background of global economic has a deep adjustment, especially, the Supply-side reform is rising in our nation, deeply explore the path of development which driven by innovation in the Total Factor Productivity(TFP) vision is very valuable. Accordingly, this paper focus on sequential development process of Ningbo, analyzing and inspecting main characterization, typical path and critical impact factors of the process, in order to sum up experience, merits and demerits, also provide local experience and revelation of decision-making for developing TFP in Ningbo. Measuring TFP contribution in economic growth of Ningbo by Solow residual method, through the research, we can find that economic growth of Ningbo is driven by capital and labor elements, while economic development which driven by TFP factors is remain to be improved. Condensing development path of TFP through two aspects--Blood transfusion and Hematopoiesis, which can promote economic growth. The empirical results also show that, human capital and R D investment in Hematopoiesis aspect can promote TFP, and export trade in Blood transfusion aspect has a positive effect to TFP, while the influence of import trade and FDI is negative. Further research shows,the interaction terms between Hematopoiesis aspect metrics and Blood transfusion aspects metrics which affect TFP present complementarity, which means, Hematopoiesis and Blood transfusion should be promoted at the same time for achieving development that driven by innovation. And finally, upgrading TFP contribution rate of the growth of economy comprehensively in the interaction of the two aspects’ promoting.

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浙江省自然科学“浙江省全要素生产率的经济贡献率测度及其增长路径研究”(课题编号：LY17G030002)、宁波市哲学社会科学规划课题“全要素生产率解构与经济增长——理论与来自宁波市的经验证据”(课题编号：G15-ZX01)、宁波市软科学重点项目“宁波创新驱动发展的障碍及其成因、公共治理模式与对策研究——基于全要素生产率的实证检验”(课题编号：2015A10022)和宁波市软科学项目“科技创新对宁波交通运输业贡献度研究”(课题编号：2015A10092)和宁波市软科学项目“创新驱动发展的‘输血式’路径、‘造血式’路径及其关联机制——基于宁波全要素生产率的实证发现”(课题编号：2016A10011)。