基于多模型的区域电能替代发展潜力研究

Research on the development potential of regional electric energy substitution based on multi model

摘要:

实施电能替代对推动我国节能减排的发展有着重要的作用。为挖掘区域电能替代潜力，以区域生产总值、人口数量、煤炭等能源消耗量等作为潜力评价指标，构建区域电能替代潜力模型，对区域电能替代潜力进行排名分析；建立区域多情景电能替代潜力分析模型，通过GM灰色预测与神经网络组合模型对能源消耗量进行预测，实现多种情景下电能替代潜力预测分析。以河北省为例,对下辖各市区电能替代潜力进行排名，并对河北省多情景下电能替代潜力电量进行预测，最后根据预测结果，给出了促进电能替代发展的建议。

Abstract:

The implementation of alternative energy plays an important role in promoting the development of energy conservation and emission reduction in china. In order to explore the regional alternative energy potential,Taking the regional GDP, population, coal and other energy consumption as the potential evaluation index,The potential model of regional electric energy substitution was constructed, analyzed the potential energy of the region; The establishment of a regional model of potential alternative amorous scene,based on the energy consumption of GM gray forecast and neural network combination forecasting model, to achieve a variety of scenarios can predict the electric potential analysis of volume replacement. Taking Hebei Province as an example, the city under the jurisdiction of the alternative energy potential ranking of Hebei Province under the scenario of alternative energy consumption potential is predicted, the results show that the model can better mining area of alternative energy potential,and gives some suggestions for the development of promoting alternative energy.