新常态下我国对外贸易仍能促进制造业技术进步吗？

Can Foreign Trade Still Promote Manufacturing Sector’ TechnologicalSImprovements in Chinese New Normal Period?

摘要:

本文利用改进的C-H模型,就贸易技术外溢的吸收能力对中国各制造业部门转型升级的影响进行实证研究。实证结果发现：研发资本存量对国内制造业各行业的全要素生产率提高有显著的促进作用。人力资本、对外开放度、研发投入、金融发展、基础设施、经济发展水平、改革意愿和制度因素都对技术密集型部门通过贸易渠道吸收技术、实现转型升级起到了至关重要的作用。同时,我国技术密集型部门通过贸易渠道获得技术具有学习能力的“门槛效应”。经济发展水平与贸易的交叉项对我国劳动密集型制造业全要素生产率的影响显著为负,表明我国劳动密集型制造业在技术上已存在瓶颈。改革意愿与贸易的交叉项,制度因素与贸易的交叉项对我国劳动密集型制造业全要素生产率的影响均不显著。因而,在新常态背景下,改变我国贸易结构,提高技术密集型制造业在我国对外贸易中的比重将有利于我国制造业转型升级。

Abstract:

In this paper, the improved C-H model is used to study the influence of the absorption capacity of trade technology spillovers on the transformation and upgrading of China"s manufacturing sector. The empirical results show that the R D capital stock has a significant effect on the improvement of the TFP of the domestic manufacturing industry. Human capital, openness, R D investment, financial development, infrastructure, economic development level, reform willingness and institutional ,all the factors play a crucial role in absorbing technology through trade channel in the technology-intensive sector. At the same time, China"s technology-intensive sectors obtain technology through the trade channels ,which has an "threshold effect." The impact that the cross term of the level of economic development and trade on the TFP of labor-intensive manufacturing in China is significantly negative, which indicates that China"s labor-intensive manufacturing industry has a technical bottleneck. The cross term of reform willingness and trade, the cross term between institutional factors and trade,both of them have no significant effect on the TFP of labor-intensive manufacturing in China. Therefore, under the new normal background, changing China"s trade structure and improving the proportion of technology-intensive manufacturing in China"s foreign trade will be conducive to the transformation and upgrading of China"s manufacturing industry.