摘要：基于外部冲击、风险偏好视角，采用调研获取的农户数据，运用Heckman样本选择模型实证分析了农户对低碳农业技术的决策选择与采用程度的影响因素，并引入交互项检验风险偏好对外部冲击的调节效应。结果表明：农户当前低碳农业技术采用率较低，其中风险厌恶程度较高者对各项低碳技术的采用率要低于风险厌恶程度较低者的采用率；外部冲击、风险偏好均负向显著影响农户采用低碳农业技术的决策选择及采用程度，农户的风险偏好对外部冲击有增强型调节效应，其作用机理在于农户的风险偏好可以强化外部冲击对低碳农业技术采用的负效应，通过增加农户对风险和不确定性的敏感程度，从而间接负向影响农户对低碳农业技术的采用；农户的个体特征、家庭特征对农户技术决策选择和采用程度两阶段的影响同中存异，均受到是否党员或村干部的影响，而在性别、年龄、劳动力人数方面存在差异。

Abstract: Based on the perspective of exogenous shocks and risk preference, using the survey of farmers’ data obtained, and the sample selection model is used to empirically analyze the influencing factors of farmers’ choices and adoption degree of low-carbon agricultural technologies. Besides, interaction terms to test the moderation effect of risk preference on exogenous shocks are introduced in the paper. The study finds that, firstly, the current adoption rate of low-carbon agricultural technology is relatively low, and farmers with higher levels of risk aversion are less likely to adopt lower-carbon technologies than those who are less risk-averse. Secondly, exogenous shocks and risk preference negatively affect farmers’ decision-making and adoption degree of low-carbon agricultural technologies. Meanwhile, the risk preference of farmers has an enhanced moderation effect on exogenous shocks. The mechanism of action is that farmers’ risk preference can reinforce the negative effect of exogenous shocks on the adoption of low-carbon agricultural technologies. By increasing farmers’ sensitivity to risks and uncertainties so that negative impacts on farmers'' adoption of low-carbon agricultural technologies indirectly. Thirdly, the individual and family characteristics of farmers have not only the same but also the different effect on the choices and degree of adoption of technological decisions of farmers, which are subject to the influence of party members or village cadres, but there are differences in terms of gender, age, and labor force.

国家自然科学基金面上项目：“低碳农业的联合生产绩效与行为机制研究”(编号：71573212),中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目：“黄土高原退耕区农户低碳生产模式与政策研究”(编号：2012027)。