以长江经济带109个城市作为研究对象,基于2004年至2015年的专利授权量数据,利用泰尔指数、变异系数、探索性空间分析方法以及面板数据门槛模型,研究了创新速度的时空格局演化及其门槛效应,得出的结论如下：长江经济带创新速度的区域差异呈现“四升四降”的双“M”字型波动下降的形态,整体差异缩小；城市间具有显著地正向空间作用并且有增强的趋势；冷热点空间分布随着时间的变化而变化,热点区逐步从长江下游地区向长江中上游地区转移,冷点区则从长江中上游地区向下游地区集聚；趋势面较为平缓,区域间的空间差异不明显,南方向上的城市创新速度扭转了落后局面,实现了对北方向上城市的赶超；资本投入和信息化水平对长江经济带创新速度的影响均具有显著地三门槛效应,经济基础对创新速度具有显著地正向影响。最后,本研究根据以上结论提出了相关政策建议。

Taking the 109 cities in Yangtze River Economic Belt as the research objectives, employing their patents authorization and other related data during the year of 2004 to 2015, this study researches the temporal-spatial evolution characteristics and its threshold effect of innovation speed by using the methods of the Theil index, variation coefficient, explore spatial data analysis and panel threshold model. The conclusions are as follows: the innovation speed in Yangtze River Economic Belt is decreasing with fluctuations, as a “double-M” type, meaning the difference of it is narrowing. The urban agglomerations of cities are positive and increasing. The spatial distribution of its hot spots and cold spots varies with time, such as the hot spots areas are moving to the middle-upper reaches of the Yangtze River from the lower reaches, and the cold spots areas are moving to the lower reaches form the middle and upper reaches. The trend surfaces are gentle, which means the diversity of innovation speed in this region is unapparent. And urbans in the south have reversed the backward situation on innovation speed and exceeded the cities in the north. Capital investment and information level both have significant three-threshold effects on innovation speed. Besides, the effect of the economic base on innovation speed is significantly positive. According to the above conclusions, this paper proposes some policy suggestions.

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国家自然科学基金项目”区域层级分工与产业空间调整——基于“四化”同步研究的视角”（71774145）、浙江省高校重大人文社科项目“产业集群创新演进视角下的浙江省县域城市化发展对策研究”（2013GH010）、2016年浙江省大学生科技创新活动计划暨新苗人才计划“绿色技术创新的空间布局变迁及其形成机制和动因分析——基于浙江化工产业”（2016R403082）。