在全球减排约束日益严苛的宏观大背景下，优化区域电力结构有助于电力系统的可持续发展。本文以总发电成本最小为优化目标，考虑了电力供需平衡、环境容量、新能源技术扩散等影响因素，构建出电力结构的优化模型，分情景对2030年江苏省煤电和新能源发电装机容量进行预测。研究结果表明：（1）在保持3.5%的用电增速、减排20%的基准情景下，煤电装机容量预计为7373万千瓦，新能源将达到5357万千瓦；（2）随着电力需求的增长，煤电装机容量占比将由67.1%下降至51.2%，而风电和光伏将分别增长至扩散潜力极限，占比将达到14.7%和19.9%；（3）同样，减排力度的不断强化将促使煤电进一步减少，而风电和光伏将增长至15.7%和19.5%;（4）受政策和资源条件影响水电和核电增长空间有限，光伏和风电增长潜力较大。因此，江苏省应着力发展能源互联网，加快风电和光伏发电的技术创新和规模化生产。

In the context of increasingly severe global constraints of emission reduction, it is meaningful for sustainable development of the power industry to optimize power structure. Considering the factors of market balance, environmental capacity, technological innovation diffusion of new energy power generation, this paper established a regional power structure optimization model by taking the minimum cost of generation as the optimization target. The aim is to predict the 2030’s power generation installed capacity of coal and new energy in Jiangsu Province by scenario analysis. Results show that in 2030: (1) Coal-fired power installed capacity will be about 73.73 million kilowatts and new energy will reach 53.57 million kilowatts in the basic scenario when keeping the 3.5% growth rate and 20% reduction rate.(2) With the growth of power demand, coal-fired power installed capacity will decrease from 67.1% to 51.2%, while wind power and PV will increase to the diffusion potential limit around 14.7% and 19.9%; (3) Similarly, the strengthening efforts of emission reduction will lead to the further decrease of coal-fired power, while wind power and PV will increase to 15.7% and 19.5%;(4) Affected by policy and resource conditions, the growth of hydropower and nuclear power is limited, but PV and wind power have relatively larger potential. Above all, Jiangsu government should concentrate on the energy Internet to promote the large-scale development and technology innovation of wind power and PV power generation.

创新研究群体科学基金