信息化、城镇化与产业结构升级的互动关系

Interactive Relationship Between Informatization, Urbanization and Industrial Structure Upgrading

摘要:

针对信息化、城镇化与产业结构升级是否相互影响的问题，基于我国2005—2016年31个省、自治区、直辖市（未包括港澳台地区）的面板数据构建面板向量自回归模型，以此来研究信息化、城镇化与产业结构升级三者的动态关系。研究结果表明，信息化、城镇化与产业结构升级各自都存在较强的惯性；信息化与城镇化相互促进，且任何一方对另一方的影响都具有持久性；信息化对产业结构升级具有持久的促进作用，但产业结构升级对信息化的促进作用并不持久；城镇化对产业结构升级具有持久的促进作用，但产业结构升级对城镇化具有抑制作用。

Abstract:

In view of the problem of whether informatization, urbanization and industrial structure upgrading affect each other, based on the panel data of 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities (not included Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) in China from 2005 to 2016, this paper constructs a panel vector autoregression model to study the dynamic relationship among informatization, urbanization and industrial structure upgrading. The results show that: the informatization, urbanization and industrial structure upgrading all have strong inertia; informatization and urbanization promote each other, and the influence of either party on the other is persistent; informatization has a long-lasting effect on industrial structure upgrading, while the promotion effect of industrial structure upgrading on informatization does not last long; urbanization plays a long-term role of promoting the industrial structure upgrading, but the industrial structure upgrading exerts an inhibitory effect on urbanization.