基于对韧性理论研究的回顾,首先论述了将韧性理论引入能源系统问题的研究价值；在此基础上提炼能源系统韧性的定义,构建并阐释了能源系统韧性的概念框架；从能源系统研究对象的确定、能源系统面临的扰动因素、能源系统韧性强度的量化评价方法以及韧性提升路径等方面,构建了能源系统韧性的研究框架,分析能源系统韧性的研究方向和重点；最后探讨了能源系统韧性研究可能面临的问题和挑战,对今后的研究进行展望。通过分析发现,能源系统韧性的研究具有理论价值和实践意义,但目前的研究成果主要集中于概念内涵和评价指标体系构建的探索,对于能源系统韧性的形成机制、动态演变过程、扰动因素的作用机理、韧性评价模型的验证与应用等议题还亟待开展深入的研究。

Based on the review of resilience study, the research value to introduce resilience theory into energy system research is discussed. Then the resilience of energy system is refined and the conceptual framework of energy system resilience is constructed and explained. From the aspects of research object identification, disturbance factors, quantitative assessment methods for energy system resilience, and resilience improvement paths, etc., a research framework for energy system resilience is established. Moreover, the research direction and focus of energy system resilience are discussed. Finally, the possible problems and challenges in future research are proposed. From this article, it is found that the research of energy system resilience has theoretical value and practical significance. However, while the current research mainly focused on the exploration of conceptual framework and assessment indexes, the formation mechanism and dynamic evolution process of energy resilience, the function mechanism of disturbance factors to energy systems remain uncleared. Issues such as the verification and application of the resilience assessment models require in-depth research.

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国家自然科学“中国能源系统韧性演化模型及其情景规划研究”(71874191)