针对目前缺乏立足于技术体系研究我国民机制造技术预见和发展的问题，以我国民用飞机总装制造中心S公司为研究对象，采用文献计量法，选取中国知网数据库中相关文献数据，运用CiteSpace软件进行文献关键词共现、聚类分析，将民机制造技术划分为应用基础研究、关键共性技术、前沿颠覆性技术3类包括8个知识子群，建立民机制造技术体系，并对各知识子群开展技术预见分析。分析表明，复合材料、飞机装配、铝锂合金、力学性能、民用飞机等是我国民机制造主要研究内容，2009－2013年和2014－2020年两阶段研究分别侧重于制造广度和制造深度，其中力学性能、大型客机、变形知识子群侧重应用基础研究，数字化装配、复合材料、铝锂合金知识子群侧重关键共性技术研究，原位成型、挖补修理知识子群则侧重于前沿颠覆性技术研究。最后提出加强投入应用基础研究、重点推进关键共性技术研究和提前布局前沿颠覆性技术研究等对策建议。

In view of the current lack of research on the forecast and development of China's civil aircraft manufacturing technology based on the technical system. Taking China Civil Aircraft Assembly Manufacturing Center S Company as the research object, using bibliometric method and selecting relevant literature data in CNKI database, and finally using CiteSpace software to conduct co-occurrence and cluster analysis of literature keywords. The civil aircraft manufacturing technology is divided into three categories: applied basic research, key common technologies, and cutting-edge disruptive technologies, including 8 knowledge subgroups, establish a civil aircraft manufacturing technology system, and carry out technology forecast analysis for each knowledge subgroup. The analysis shows that composite materials, aircraft assembly, aluminum-lithium alloys, mechanical properties, and civil aircraft are the main research contents of China's civil aircraft manufacturing. The two-phase studies in 2009-2013 and 2014-2020 focus on manufacturing breadth and manufacturing depth, respectively. Among them, the knowledge subgroup of mechanical properties, large passenger aircraft, and deformation focuses on applied basic research; the knowledge subgroup of digital assembly, composite materials, and aluminum-lithium alloys focuses on the research of key common technologies; the knowledge subgroup of in-situ forming and repairing focuses on cutting-edge disruptive technologies. Research. Finally, some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward, such as strengthening investment in applied basic research, focusing on promoting key common technology research, and deploying cutting-edge disruptive technology research in advance.

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上海市2021年度科技创新行动计划软科学重点项目“基于创新型领军企业的科技创新平台体系建设探索”（21692196500）；上海市软科学研究计划项目“大飞机的技术路线图专题研究”（1569210660D）