本文选取2011-2019年长三角地区41个城市面板数据,从创新要素区际流动的视角构建空间权重矩阵,运用空间杜宾模型、面板门槛模型,实证考察了长三角地区数字经济对区域创新产出的影响,结果表明：在创新人员及创新资本空间关联矩阵下,长三角地区创新产出及数字经济均存在显著的正向空间相关性；数字经济不仅有利于本地区创新产出的提高,还存在显著的正向空间溢出效应。相较于都市圈城市,非都市圈城市获得了更多的数字经济创新溢出红利,数字经济的发展有助于缩小城市间创新差距。随着数字经济发展水平的提高,其对区域创新产出的促进作用大小呈现出先增大后减小的非线性特征,且只有当数字经济发展到一定规模后,才会对区域创新产出产生显著的促进作用；进一步研究发现,数字经济与区域创新产出之间存在基于区域吸收能力的双重门槛效应,合理的区域吸收能力能有效强化数字经济对区域创新产出的促进作用。

This paper selects the panel data of 41 cities in the Yangtze River Delta from 2011 to 2019, constructs a spatial weight matrix from the perspective of the interregional flow of innovative elements, and uses the spatial Dubin model and the panel threshold model, we empirically examined the influence of the digital economy in the Yangtze River Delta on regional innovation output. The results show that: Under the spatial correlation matrix of innovative personnel and innovative capital, there is a significant positive spatial correlation between innovation output and digital economy in the Yangtze River Delta; The digital economy is not only conducive to the increase of innovation output in the region, but also has a significant positive spatial spillover effect. Compared with metropolitan cities, non-metropolitan cities have received more digital economy innovation spillover dividends, and the development of digital economy will help narrow the innovation gap between cities. With the improvement of the development level of the digital economy, its promotion of regional innovation output presents a non-linear characteristic of first increasing and then decreasing, and only when the digital economy develops to a certain scale will it have a significant impact on regional innovation output The promotion effect; Further research found that there is a dual threshold effect based on regional absorptive capacity between the digital economy and regional innovation output. A reasonable regional absorptive capacity can effectively strengthen the role of digital economy in promoting regional innovation output.

国家社科“长江经济带城市群联动发展对区域一体化的影响作用及政策选择研究”(项目编号 19BJL051)