本文通过选取《中国区域科技创新评价报告》的综合科技创新水平指数及39项三级指标作为研究对象，采取“自下而上”的方式，对39项指标采用增速法进行滚动预测，并测算出31个省（市、区）2030年综合科技创新水平指数。结合中国区域发展战略演化、区域创新格局及区域科技力量空间布局等，对未来十年中国区域科技创新能力趋势演变进行研究。结果表明：至2030年，中国科技创新区域进一步集聚，北京、上海、粤港澳大湾区将成为具有全球影响力的科技创新高地；“一纵一横”两大创新带的廊道效应逐渐突显，成为区域创新集聚区；中国科技创新重心不断向南转移，区域间科技创新发展依旧不平衡，而城市群协同创新将成为区域科技创新的重要方式，科技创新发展逐步进入“超越行政区划”的新时代。

This paper selects the comprehensive scientific and technological innovation level index and 39 three-level indicators of China's regional scientific and technological innovation evaluation report as the research object, adopts the "bottom-up" method, makes a rolling prediction of 39 indicators by using the growth method, and uses the weighted comprehensive index method to calculate the comprehensive scientific and technological innovation level index of 31 provinces (cities and districts) in 2030. Combined with the evolution of China's regional development strategy, regional innovation pattern and the spatial layout of regional scientific and technological forces, this paper studies the evolution trend of China's regional scientific and technological innovation ability in the next decade. The results show that by 2030, China's scientific and technological innovation regions will further gather, and Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Bay areas will become scientific and technological innovation Highlands with global influence; The corridor effect of "one vertical and one horizontal" two innovation belts has gradually become prominent, becoming a regional innovation agglomeration area; The focus of China's scientific and technological innovation continues to shift to the south, and the development of scientific and technological innovation among regions is still unbalanced. Collaborative innovation of urban agglomeration will become an important way of regional scientific and technological innovation, and the development of scientific and technological innovation has gradually entered a new era of "Surpassing administrative divisions".

F204;F416.61

贵州省哲学社会科学规划课题《社会主义市场经济条件下贵州建设适应经济社会发展趋势的科技创新体系研究》(课题编号21GZYB59)