科学合理分配黄河流域各省区的碳排放权并评估其碳减排潜力事关流域各省区未来的发展空间。文章通过构建碳排放权省域分配模型测算了黄河流域2018—2030年各省区的碳排放权及其空间余额，采用最优效率法评估了2020年黄河流域各省区的碳减排潜力。研究表明：①黄河流域各省区碳排放权分配不均。2018—2030年流域的碳排放权总量为323.06亿t，配额大部分集中于中下游地区，上游地区的碳排放权配额较少。其中，山东配额最多，达100.30亿t；宁夏配额最少，为5.46亿t。②2018—2030年黄河流域碳排放空间不足，累积碳排放权赤字达113.50亿t。其中，山西、内蒙古、山东、甘肃、青海和宁夏的累积碳排放权空间余额均为负值，属于碳排放权赤字地区；四川、河南和陕西则均为正值，属于盈余地区。③黄河流域各省区的碳减排潜力呈现出“西北高、东南低”的分布特征，碳减排潜力差距大。

Allocating the carbon emission rights scientifically and reasonably as well as evaluating the carbon-reduction potential in the regions and provinces relate to future development space rights in the regions and provinces of the Yellow River Basin. Based on the allocation model of carbon emission rights in the regions and provinces, the carbon emission rights were allocated to each province in the Yellow River Basin from 2018 to 2030, the spatial balance of carbon emission rights was calculated, and the carbon-reduction potential of each province in the Yellow River Basin was evaluated by using the optimal efficiency method in 2020. Studies show that: (1) The allocation of carbon emission rights are uneven among the regions and provinces of the Yellow River Basin. From 2018 to 2030, the total amount of carbon emission rights in the basin was 32.306 billion tons, and most of the quotas are concentrated in the middle and lower reaches while the quotas in the upper reaches are less. Among them, Shandong has the largest quota of 10.030 billion tons; Ningxia has the least quota of 0.546 billion tons. (2) There are insufficient space for carbon emission in the Yellow River Basin from 2018 to 2030, with a cumulative carbon emission rights deficit of 11.350 billion tons. Among them, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Gansu, Qinghai, and Ningxia which belong to the carbon emission rights deficit areas have negative spatial balance of accumulative carbon emission rights; while Sichuan, Henan and Shaanxi that belong to surplus areas have positive values. (3) The carbon-reduction potential of the provinces and regions in the Yellow River Basin was characterized by “high potential in the northwest and low in the southeast.” There was a large gap in carbon-reduction potential.

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国家社科基金重大项目“黄河流域生态环境保护与高质量发展耦合协调与协同推进研究”(21ZDA066)