环境不确定性是行为经济学理论的研究热点,也是中国企业走出去进程中面临的现实问题。环境不确定性是一种客观存在,可以从制度、市场和技术等维度加以认识。环境不确定性也是一种主观感知,受到情境因素、个体属性和认知推理的影响,反映了感知者不同的动机、态度和风险倾向。由此,根据不确定性两分法思想,把环境不确定性扩展为四种状态,以展示对现代市场经济中企业专利商业化决策的影响。本文以典型中国汽车企业为研究样本,把走出去过程分为四个阶段,通过不同市场进入方式下企业基本价值活动的分解,结合专利商业化策略基本特征与构成要素,分析了不同状态的环境不确定性对产品策略、许可策略和组合策略的作用与演化机理,从理论逻辑与案例研究两个方面揭示了专利商业化策略的选择机理。主要结论：中国企业走出去进程是一个对环境不确定性的认知从模糊不清到清晰明确的过程,专利商业化策略选择是企业对环境不确定性感知的行为反应,合理的策略及其组合有助于企业完善应对不确定性风险的对冲机制,提高企业国际市场竞争中的创新绩效。

Environmental uncertainty is the research hotspot of behavioralSeconomics, and it is also a realistic problem faced by Chinese enterprises in the process of "Going global". Environmental uncertainty is an objective existence, which can be recognized from the dimensions of institution, market and technology. Environmental uncertainty is also a subjective perception, which is affected by situational factors, individual attributes and cognitive reasoning, and reflects different motivations, attitudes and risk tendencies of the perceivers.So,according to the idea of uncertainty dichotomy, the environmental uncertainty is expanded into four states to show the impact on the commercialization decision of enterprises in the modern market economy.Taking typical Chinese automobile enterprises as research samples, this paper divides the "Going global s the role and evolution mechanism of environmental uncertainty in different states on product strategy, licensing strategy and hybrid strategy, The selection mechanism of patent commercialization strategy is revealed from theoretical explanation and case study. This paper believes that the process of Chinese enterprises" Going Out is a cognitive process from vagueStoSexplicitness of environmental uncertainty. The choice of patent commercialization strategy is the behavioral response of enterprises to uncertainty. Reasonable strategies and their combination will help enterprises improve the hedging mechanism against uncertain risks and improve their innovation performance in international market competition.

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国家自然科学“基于多重不确定性的我国西部企业专利商业化策略组合研究：面向中国-东盟自贸区的视角”(71864005)