多利益主体下具有多个禁止时间窗口的项目群业主计划费用现值优化模型-以新沂河整治项目群为例

Optimal Model for the Present Value of Employer"s Planned Cost of Programs with Multiple Prohibited Time Windows under Multiple Interest Subjects: A Case Study of Xinyi River Repairing Program

摘要:

禁止时间窗口是影响业主支付费用现值的主要影响因素之一,如何有效地优化业主支付费用现值是项目群实施过程管理既是一个理论问题,也是一个实践问题。首先,界定了问题,详细分析了项目群业主计划费用现值优化原理,并将合同项目进行了分类。其次,考虑具有多个特殊合同项目的特殊性,构建了项目群业主计划费用现值优化模型。第三,当优化工期小于项目群合理工期时,研究并构建了项目群不同工期下业主计划费用现值优化模型。第四,结合新沂河整治项目群(Y)开展了案例分析,验证模型的可行性和有效性。最后,提出了管理启示。研究结果表明：当项目群工期压缩幅度保持在一定范围内时,业主计划费用现值(或收益)与工期之间是一种累积关系,即两者可以得到同时优化；但是项目群工期压缩幅度超过的增加一定的范围,业主计划费用现值(或收益)与项目群工期之间是一种权衡关系,两者不能同时得到优化,即一个目标的优化要以牺牲另一个目标为代价,业主需要在两者之间作出取舍。本文研究成果为业主科学、合理开展业主计划费用现值的优化提供参考。

Abstract:

Prohibited time window is one of the main factors affecting the present value of the employer"s payment costs. How to effectively optimize the present value of the employer"s payment costs is a theoretical issue as well as a practical issue for the implementation process management of the program. First of all, the problem is defined, the principle of optimizing the present value of the employer"s planned cost of the program is analyzed in detail, and the contracted project is divided into two categories: the first category is the contracted project that can be completed in the original time window; The second category is the contracted project that can be completed in the second, third,... and other subsequent time windows. Secondly, considering the particularity of the contracted project with multiple forbidden times, an optimization model of the present value of the employer"s planned costs of the program before and during the implementation of the program is constructed. Thirdly, when the optimized construction period is less than the reasonable construction period of the program, the present value optimization model of the employer"s planned cost under different construction periods of the program is studied and constructed. Fourthly, a case study was carried out in combination with program Y to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the model. Finally, the management inspiration is put forward. The results show that when the duration of the program is compressed within a certain range, there is a cumulative relationship between the present value (or income) of the employer"s planned cost and the duration, that is, both can be optimized at the same time; The reduction of the construction period of the program exceeds a certain range. There is a trade-off between the present value (or income) of the employer"s planned cost and the construction period of the program. The two cannot be optimized at the same time. The employer needs to choose between the present value (or income) of the cost and the construction period. The research results of this paper provide a reference for employers to scientifically and reasonably optimize the present value (or income) of employers" planned costs.