针对企业牵头创新联合体的协同研发决策问题，综合考虑其组织模式特征和参与各方协同研发行为的跨期性特征，分别构建Nash非合作研发模式、领军企业成本分担模式以及协同合作研发模式的微分博弈模型，得到三种研发模式下三方努力程度、成本分担比例、最优收益函数和关键核心技术存量最优轨迹。通过对三种博弈结果的比较分析发现，来自领军企业的成本分担，可提高学研机构和中小企业的研发努力水平，实现三方研发效益的帕累托改进；协同合作研发模式下，三方的研发努力程度、整体研发收益以及关键核心技术存量均优于其他两种模式。最后，通过数值仿真分析，验证了模型的有效性，并分析了关键参数的敏感性，为企业牵头创新联合体的构建与管理提供了理论依据。

Aiming at the collaborative R&D decision-making problem of enterprise-led innovation consortia, the differential game model of Nash non-cooperative R&D model, the cost sharing model of leading enterprises and collaborative cooperative R&D mode was constructed respectively, and the optimal trajectory of tripartite effort, cost sharing ratio, optimal benefit function and key core technology stock were obtained under the three R&D modes. Through the comparative analysis of the three game results, it is found that the cost sharing from leading enterprises can improve the R&D efforts of academic and research institutions and SMEs, and realize the Pareto improvement of the R&D benefits of the three parties. Under the collaborative R&D model, the degree of R&D effort, overall R&D revenue and key core technology stock of the three parties are better than the other two models. Finally, through numerical simulation analysis, the effectiveness of the model is verified, and the sensitivity of key parameters is analyzed, which provides a theoretical basis for the construction and management of enterprise-led innovation consortia.

F224.32

上海市“科技创新行动计划”软科学重点项目、21692111300，上海市“科技创新行动计划”软科学重点项目 22692104900