关于颠覆性技术创新项目评价及立项决策模型的研究

Research on Evaluation and Decision Model of Disruptive Technological Innovation Projects

摘要:

我国尚未形成评价颠覆性技术创新项目的标准化方法体系及细化的立项决策方案。为实现我国颠覆性技术创新项目的精准遴选，促进颠覆性创新产业的培育发展，在分析梳理国内外关于颠覆性技术创新项目遴选、立项决策管理方面研究的基础上，分析对比颠覆性技术创新项目与一般科技计划项目的特征属性差异，借鉴海尔迈耶问题的做法，结合当前政策导向，针对颠覆性技术具有隐蔽性、破坏性、不确定性的特征属性，提出相应的项目遴选角度和评审标准的思路，并利用层次分析法构建颠覆性技术创新项目立项评价的三级指标体系。从项目影响力、项目可能性两方面构建颠覆性技术创新项目的决策矩阵模型，为颠覆性创新项目立项决策提供判断依据。

Abstract:

China has not yet formed a standardized methodology system for evaluating disruptive technological innovation projects and a detailed decision-making scheme for project approval. In order to achieve accurate selection of disruptive technological innovation projects in China and promote the cultivation and development of disruptive innovation industries, on the basis of analyzing and sorting out domestic and foreign research on the selection and decision-making management of disruptive technological innovation projects, we analyzed and compared the characteristics and attributes of disruptive technological innovation projects and general science and technology planning projects. Referring to the practice of Heilmeier problem, combined with the current policy guidance, we propose the idea of project selection angle and evaluation criteria aiming at the characteristic attributes of disruptive technology that are hidden, destructive and uncertain, and use the analytic hierarchy process to build a three-level indicator system for the evaluation of disruptive technological innovation projects. The decision-making matrix model of disruptive technological innovation projects is constructed from the two aspects of project influence and project possibility, which provides a judgment basis for the decision-making of disruptive innovation projects.