实现“碳达峰、碳中和”目标是我国应对全球气候变化和推动经济社会绿色转型的重要指导纲领，国家质量基础设施（NQI）建设能为实现“双碳”目标提供重要制度保障和技术支撑。本文首先分析了我国省域层面低碳发展水平和国家质量基础设施的研究现状，随后在省域层面针对碳排放控制效率与NQI低碳建设应用构建起“碳效率指数”和“NQI低碳应用指数”指标变量为基础的耦合系统模型，再运用哈肯模型借助协同演化理论与序参量识别方法实证分析我国现阶段省域层面碳排放控制与NQI建设的协同演化关系，最后确定碳排放效率控制作为耦合系统序参量主导着地区低碳发展进程，省域NQI低碳应用建设作为快变量能够产生重要影响。

To achieve the goal of "carbon peak and carbon neutrality" is an important guiding program for China to cope with global climate change and promote the green transformation of economy and society. The construction of national quality infrastructure (NQI) can provide important institutional guarantee and technical support for realizing the goal of "double carbon". This paper first analyzes the research status of low-carbon development level and national quality infrastructure in China at the provincial level, and then constructs a coupling system model based on the index variables of "carbon efficiency index" and "NQI low-carbon application index" for carbon emission control efficiency and NQI low-carbon construction application at the provincial level. Then, Haken model is used to empirically analyze the co-evolution relationship between carbon emission control and NQI construction at the provincial level in China at the present stage by means of co-evolution theory and order parameter identification method. Finally, it is determined that carbon emission efficiency control as a coupled system order parameter dominates the regional low-carbon development process, and provincial NQI low-carbon application construction as a fast variable can have an important impact.

国家重点研发计划项目“典型行业碳达峰的关键技术标准及质量基础协同控制研究”(2021YFF0601004)