“一带一路”沿线国家小水电可持续性评价研究

Small hydropower sustainability evaluation for the countries along the Belt and Road

摘要:

在中国提出“一带一路”倡议的背景下,为促进中国小水电积极积极参与其中,需对“一带一路”沿线国家小水电可持续性进行综合评价,明晰沿线国家小水电整体发展水平。本文试图以“一带一路”沿线国家为研究对象,从经济、政治、社会、生态环境和资源5个方面构建小水电可持续性评价指标体系。综合运用层次分析(AHP)—模糊综合评价模型,从定量的角度,对有关国家小水电发展的可持续性进行计算与分析。指明了未来中国小水电行业优先参与的重点区域是东南亚7国、东亚1国及南亚6国；指出制约重点区域内有关国家小水电可持续发展的主要一级指标是经济、社会和资源；甄别了需要重点关注的二级指标。在此基础上,从小水电可持续发展的顶层设计、新的发展模式、投融资、绿色发展理念、评价指标体系、风险防范等方面提出具有针对性的政策建议。

Abstract:

A quantitative approach to the comprehensive evaluation of the sustainability of small hydropower in countries along “the Belt and Road” is not established at present. The understanding of the overall level of small hydropower (SHP) development in related countries is not clear enough, and it is not conducive to Chinese SHP participation in “the Belt and Road” initiative. In this study, taking countries along the “the Belt and Road” as the research objects, based on the categories of economy, politics, society, ecological environment and resources, the indicators system of small hydropower sustainability is built. Based on this, an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is adopted to calculate and analyze the sustainability of small hydropower in relevant countries from a quantitative perspective. Key regions for China’s small hydropower to participate in “the Belt and Road” Initiative are indicated, including the seven countries in Southeast Asia, one country in East Asia, and six countries in South Asia; economy, society and resources factors are the main restrictions for the development of small hydropower. Secondary indicators which should be focused on, are also put forward. Based on our results, some policy suggestions are proposed from the perspectives of top design, new development mode, investment and financing, green development ideas, evaluation indicator system, and risk prevention.