识别网络文化产业的影响因素,有利于政府建构具有前瞻性的网络文化产业发展体系,推动网络文化产业健康、快速发展。以网络文化产品与网络文化产业链为内部因素,以政治环境、经济环境、社会文化环境与技术环境为外部因素,建立网络文化产业发展的影响因素的理论模型。采用决策树方法,基于上海市实证分析发现,网络文化内容创新性、网购配套体系完善度等15个因素进入网络文化产业发展影响因素决策树模型,属于具有显著影响的重要因素。实证结论表明：内容创新是网络文化产业发展的根本,营销体系的完善是网络文化产业发展的关键,社会文化环境是网络文化产业发展最为重要的外部因子。为促进产业发展,建议加快网络文化内容创新与加大创意投入并举,完善网络文化产品营销体系与网购支付体系同行,优化政治、经济、技术、社会文化环境、打造绿色网络文化生态。

The government can build a forward-looking development system for network cultural industries, realizing the healthy and rapid development by identifying network culture industry factors. The influencing factors model of network cultural industries development included internal factors (network cultural products and network cultural industries chain) and external factors (political environment, economic environment, social and cultural environment and technological environment).This paper uses a decision tree method, collected valid questionnaires from Shanghai, the decision tree model contains 15 essential factors such as network cultural content creation, online shopping sophistication matching system, and so on. Empirical results show that: the content innovation is the fundamental development factor, the marketing system is the key factor, social and cultural environment is the most important external factor. To promote industrial development, we should speed up the network cultural contents innovation, improve the marketing system and online shopping payment system of network cultural product, and optimize the political, economic, technological and socio-cultural environment, to create a good network cultural ecology.

教育部人文社会科学研究青年(13YJC860039)；国家自然科学(71103127)；中国博士后科学基金；华东政法大学科研基金。