基于广义随机Petri网对能源突发事件应急管理流程进行建模，借助T不变量判断模型的有效性，得到状态空间可达图，同构其马尔科夫链分析系统稳定状态概率进行系统性能分析。以2009年11月至2010年1月的能源短缺应急管理流程为例进行仿真分析，得到系统的稳定状态概率，基于此计算得到库所平均标记数、变迁利用率等主要性能参数。结果表明，应急处置环节和应急恢复环节是能源突发事件应急管理工作的瓶颈环节，管理层和决策层应将其作为工作流程优化的重点，以此提高能源应急管理效率。

The paper modeled the energy emergency management processes based on generalized stochastic Petri nets. With the invariants the author determined the validity of the model, obtained state-space reachability graph and isomorphic Markov chain. Then through analyzing the steady-state probability the author analyzed the performance of the system. Simulating the case that the energy shortage emergency management process from November 2009 to January 2010, the author obtained the stable state probability. Based on that the author calculated the average number of markers library and token utilization. The results showed that emergency response and emergency recovery are the bottleneck of emergency management energy. Manager and decision-maker should emphasize on them in order to improve energy emergency efficiency.

国家自然科学基金“突发性能源短缺应急响应的组织体系及情景—应对策略研究（71173218）”