本文通过回顾相关文献,对重要基础设施脆弱性评价的研究基础、研究背景、评价思路、评价体系框架、评价内容等几个方面的主要观点、成果和发展趋势进行了分析和总结。重要基础设施脆弱性评价以系统脆弱性分析为基础,是在识别出威胁的基础上对于系统要素和系统整体失效模式的分析,它是开展风险评价的重要组成部分。随着对基础设施系统分析的深入,评价思路逐渐成熟,即基于对系统进行“系统—子系统—要素”的分解,通过对每一环节所面临的威胁情景进行分析,进而对要素受损可能性进行判断,最终通过打分实现对脆弱性的定量评价。从评价体系框架的形成来看,主要可以分为“空间”到“时间”和从“物质”到“社会”两条路径,并且由于两条路径的不断交叉融合,形成了包含四个维度的评价体系框架,而目前的评价内容正是由此细化而来。评价内容主要涉及了地质条件与衰变、设施的报废与更新、地理位置与内部结构、相关性、中断威胁、政策与政治环境、保护与保障措施、容量与可用性八个方面。

By review of relevant literatures, the main points and trends of critical infrastructure vulnerability assessment are stated, which involve the basis, the background, the evaluation path, evaluation system framework and the contents. Supported by system vulnerability analysis, as a part of risk assessment, critical infrastructure vulnerability assessment is the failure mode analysis of elements and entire system based on threats identification. With the in-depth analysis of infrastructure systems, based on the decomposition as ‘system - subsystem – element’, the assessment path of critical infrastructure vulnerability can be concluded as from threats scenario analysis and judgment of damage status to comprehensive score. As for the frame formation of assessment system, it can be divided into two paths – form . Because of continuous combining of the two paths, four-dimension assessment system framework was formed, and which is the basis of assessment contents system. The assessment contents include geological conditions and decay, infrastructure obsolescence, location and internal structure, interdependencies, disruptive threats, policy and political environment, protection and safeguard, capacity and availability.

教育部课题“EVM 方法在我国军事装备项目管理中的应用机制与技术方法研究”（课题编号10JA630474）