基于参数法的我国航空飞机研制项目成本估算研究*

Research on the Cost Estimating of China

摘要:

现代飞机研制工作具有产品结构较复杂、研制周期较长、风险性较高和重复性较差等显著特点,使得飞机研制项目成本估算较为困难。在分析参数法成本估算的基础上,针对飞机研制项目分析成本影响因素,运用相关性分析确定影响成本的关键影响因素,构建飞机研制项目成本影响因素模型,并在此基础上运用多元非线性回归分析建立飞机研制项目的参数法成本估算模型,最后从航空飞机制造企业、研发机构和政府三个角度对我国航空飞机研制项目实施参数法成本估算提出建议。

关键词:航空工业;飞机研制 ;参数法成本估算;影响因素;模型

Abstract:

The modern aircraft development work has significant characteristics, such as the more complex product structure, the longer development cycle, the higher risks and poor reproducibility. And the cost estimating of development project is difficult. Based on analyzing the method of parametric cost estimating, analyzing the influencing factors of aircraft development project costs, using the correlation analysis to determine the key influencing factors of project costs and establish the cost impact factor model. And on this basis, using multiple nonlinear regression analysis method to establish the aircraft development project cost estimation model. Finally, the recommendations of using the method of parametric cost estimating to estimate the cost of China"s aviation aircraft development project are given from the three aspects of enterprise, development institution and government.

Key words:aviation industry; aircraft development; parametric cost estimating; influencing factors; model