关税减让对中国进口日韩汽车贸易影响的实证研究

An Empirical Study of Tariff Concessions Impact on China

摘要:

文章选取2001-2010年中国进口日韩汽车贸易为样本面板数据,以比较优势理论和要素禀赋理论为基础,通过构建关税减让进口贸易模型,尝试分析关税减让对我国汽车进出口贸易的影响,旨在为当前的中日韩FTA贸易谈判提供参考依据。研究发现：(1)从PCT职务申请看,日本对中国继续保持绝对技术优势,而韩国的技术优势在逐渐缩小,而且中国在离合器、制动系统等零部件领域有反超的趋势；(2)进口关税的降低大大推动了日韩汽车的对华出口贸易,同时不可避免会对国内汽车造成一定冲击。(3)随着我国经济的持续增长,国内汽车消费需求急速增加,我国汽车关税进一步降低带来的影响甚至可能会超过入世时的影响。不仅如此,日本和韩国的汽车进口关税远低于中国,加之我国本身技术创新能力不高,汽车进口关税的减让应该以日韩对我国农产品关税的大幅下降,才能实现双赢。

关键词:关税减让;技术比较优势;汽车进口贸易;汽车产业;中日韩FTA

Abstract:

This paper selected 2001-2010 Korean and Japanese automotive imports trade as a sample panel data to the theory of comparative advantage and factor endowments theory, the import tariff reduction by building trade models , trying to analyze China"s auto tariff concessions on import and export trade the impact to provide a reference for the current CJK FTA trade negotiations. The study found : ( 1 ) from the PCT job application perspective, Japan China continues to maintain absolute technological superiority , while South Korea "s technological advantage is gradually narrowing , and China in the field of clutch parts , brake systems , which are ahead of the trend ; ( 2 ) Reduce import tariffs contributed significantly to the Japanese and Korean car exports to China, while domestic car will inevitably cause some impact; ( 3 ) With China"s sustained economic growth, the rapid increase in domestic consumer demand for cars , further reducing the impact of China"s auto tariff impact of WTO accession may even exceed the time . Moreover, Japanese car import tariffs much lower than China and South Korea , coupled with our ability to innovate technology itself is not high , car import tariff cuts should be based on the sharp decline of Japanese and Korean agricultural tariffs in order to achieve a win-win .

Key words:tariff concessions ; technological comparative advantage ; auto import trade ; Auto Industry; CJK FTA;