结构、强度、规模与电力碳排放——基于LMDI分解方法的研究

Structure, Intensity, Scale andCarbon Emissions from Electricity

摘要:

利用1996-2012年中国电力生产和消费数据，基于电力从生产到消费的全过程，建立了电力碳排放驱动因素分解模型，并通过LMDI分解方法测算了这些因素对碳排放影响的程度和方向。结果表明，1996-2012年，正向驱动因素主要有经济规模、生活消费、人口规模，贡献率分别109.51%、14.63%、7.92%；负向驱动因素主要是转换效率和电力强度，贡献率分别为-19.32%、-13.24%。经济规模效应是使得电力碳排放增加的最主要因素，而转换效率效应则是减少碳排放的最大力量。

Abstract:

Using the data from the year 1996 to 2012, based on the entire process from production to consumption of electricity, the paper builds a factor decomposition model of carbon emission from electricity by the logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition method. The results showed that between 1996 and 2012, the positive drivers are economic development, cost of living and population size，the contribution rate is 109.51%，14.63% and 7.92% .The negative factors are conversion efficiency and electricity intensity, the contribution rate is -19.32% and -13.24%. The effect of economic development is the most important factor to increase carbon emissions, and conversion efficiency effect is the greatest strength to reduce carbon emissions.