高等教育扩张政策后期效应对我国第三产业发展的影响研究——基于省级面板数据的实证分析

Later effects of the policy of the expansion of higher education on China

摘要:

本文通过采用省级面板数据分析了大专以上文化程度人口比重的变化对第三产业产值占GDP比重的影响,研究了自上世纪90年代末期我国实施高等教育扩张政策以来,由于高等教育扩张而引致的高层次人力资本的增加对第三产业发展产生的影响。研究结果表明大专以上文化程度人口比重与第三产业产值占GDP比重之间呈现正U型关系,在拐点之前,大专以上文化程度人口比重的增加对提高第三产业产值占GDP的比重的作用相对较弱,在拐点之后,大专以上文化程度人口比重的增加对提高第三产业产值占GDP的比重的推动作用逐渐加强。

关键词:高等教育扩张;第三产业;累积效应

Abstract:

Based on the research of the impact of changes in the proportion of college educated population on the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP by using provincial panel data, this paper analyze the effect of increasing high-level human capital on the development of tertiary industry since the late 1990s when the policy of the expansion of higher education had been adopt. The results show that there is a positive U-shaped relationship between the proportion of college educated population and the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP. The impact of the increasing proportion of college educated population on the proportion of tertiary industry in GDP is relatively weak before the turning point, but the effect is gradually strengthened after the turning point.

Key words:expansion of higher education; tertiary industry; cumulative effect