基于政府监督管理群体性突发事件在线演化过程,从博弈论的角度,对媒体和媒体及意见领袖和普通网民之间的博弈进行分析。研究结果表明：事件在线演化的总体趋势主要依靠媒体传播,意见领袖引导；媒体会根据事件的影响程度决定是否进行实地报道从而选择发布信息的时间；而政府需要通过惩罚蓄意扰乱网络秩序的意见领袖或网民,以及合理调控惩罚力度,得到理想的稳定策略,从而实现加快平息事件在线演化的进程。

Based on the government supervise and manage the online group incidents evolution process, from the perspective of game theory, this paper analysis the game relationship between media and the media, opinion leaders and ordinary Internet users. The research results show that the overall trend of online evolution events mainly rely on the spreading of media, the leading of opinion leaders; According to the influence degree of the event, media may choose the time of releasing information by considering whether to do field reports; Government will punish opinion leaders or ordinary Internet users who disturb the order of network deliberately, by using the penalties under reasonable control, then get the ideal stable strategy, so as to speed up the evolution process of online event.

(71101034/G0104)“自然灾害应急协同决策及其可靠性仿真”;黑龙江省自然科学“电子商务信用风险预警系统研究” F201003