基于DSSM模型的山东省能源消费结构研究

Research on consumption structure in Shandong province DSSM model based

摘要:

山东省是我国能源消费大省，未来一段时间面临着较大的能源压力，优化能源消费结构是促进山东省经济社会可持续发展的必然要求。在分析山东省能源消费情况的基础上，运用动态偏离份额模型对山东省2006-2012年的能源消费结构进行研究，并运用shift-share分析对山东省各行业的能源消费现状进行归类，更明确能源消费结构存在的问题。最终提出了制定能源规划与配套约束法律、研发与引入先进技术和发挥计划与市场的共同作用的建议来优化山东省能源消费结构，缓解能源消费危机，促进可持续发展。结论表明：山东省能源消费增速略高于全国平均增速；工业对山东省能源消费影响最大；未来一段时间内，山东省交通运输仓储和邮政业、批发零售和住宿餐饮业、其他行业、生活方面的能源消费大规模增长可能性较大。

Abstract:

Shandong province, facing the great energy pressure for some time to come, is a big traditional energy-consuming province in China. Optimizing and upgrading the energy consumption structure is the inevitable requirement to promote economic and social sustainable development in Shandong province. Based on the analysis of energy consumption in Shandong province ,uses dynamic deviation share model to study the energy consumption structure of Shandong province in 2006-2012 and uses shift-share analysis to category the energy consumption in current situation of all industries in Shandong province，make the existing problems in energy consumption structure clearer. Ultimately proposed suggestions that formulate energy planning and assorted constraint law; give full play of combined effect of plan and market to develop and induct advanced technology to alleviate the crisis of energy consumption and promote the sustainable development. The conclusions show that the energy consumption growth in Shandong province is slightly higher than the national average growth rate, industrial energy consumption has the most impact on the energy consumption in Shandong province; In the recent past, the possibility of massive growth of energy consumption in transport, storage and communications、wholesale, retail sales, hoteling and catering trade、other industries or in daily life is high.