基于系统动力学的应急管理知识系统建模与仿真

Emergency Management Knowledge System Model and Simulation Based on the Modeling of System Dynamics

摘要:

突发公共事件发生前后伴随各类知识。结合系统科学理论界定了应急管理知识系统,并分析了系统中主要的知识活动。运用系统动力学方法构建了以应急决策主体和应急参与主体构成的二元系统动力学模型,并采用Vensim PLE软件对系统模型进行仿真。从知识存量的角度,分析了主体间相互协作对应急决策以及应急系统知识存量的影响,是从知识视角对应急管理过程进行分析的有益尝试。

Abstract:

The process of emergencies is associated with kinds of knowledge. Combining with theory of system engineering, this paper defined the concept of knowledge system of emergency management and analyzed major knowledge actions. The paper applied the method of system dynamics to construct a system dynamics model concluding emergency decision-maker and participants, which can be simulated by Vensim PLE. From the perspective of knowledge stock, the analysis for the affect of decision-making and system knowledge stock through the collaboration of emergency organizations is a valuable attempt for the research of emergency process.