基于可计算一般均衡模型的航空制造业需求带动效应和要素配置研究

The Research on Demand Pull and Factor Allocation of Aircraft Manufacturing Industry Based on Computable General Equilibrium Model

摘要:

本文构建了上海地区航空产业的可计算一般均衡模型,通过闭合方式的选择使得要素内生,研究分析了航空制造业需求增加带来的经济效应和要素流动,为产业有序发展提供依据。结果表明：进口替代与出口导向都有利于本地航空制造业快速成长,并通过产业关联作用于经济增长。产业发展同时提供了大量就业机会以及投资需求,刺激了当地消费,有助于形成持续的经济增长动力。在产业层面上,航空制造业发展有利于第一产业和第三产业增长,对第二产业的带动效应偏弱,尤其在重型工业方面。

Abstract:

The paper built a computable general equilibrium model, in which factor variables could be endogenous in certain closure condition, to study the economic effects and factor allocation induced by demand pulls so as to provide the basis for orderly development of the aircraft manufacturing industry in Shanghai. Simulation results indicated that, aircraft manufacturing industry would get rapid growth by the import substitution or export orientation strategy, and the local economy could also be benefited through the industrial association. Meanwhile the industrial development offered a large number of employment opportunities and financial needs, which stimulated the native consumption and contribute to the formation of sustainable economic growth. At the industry level, the expansion of aircraft manufacturing industry was conducive to the primary industry and tertiary industry, while had weak driving effect on the secondary industry, especially in heavy industry.