本文基于投入产出法提出了直接碳排放系数、完全碳排放系数及出口贸易隐含碳的计算方法,以中国的制造业为例,测算了2000-2010年各部门的直接碳排放系数、完全碳排放系数及出口贸易隐含碳,并利用结构分解法将制造业出口贸易隐含碳变化量分解为：技术效应、结构效应、规模效应。得到以下结论：(1)各制造业部门的直接碳排放系数和完全碳排放系数都有所下降,说明各部门的节能减排取得了较好的效果；(2)2000-2007年间制造业出口隐含碳占二氧化碳排放总量的百分比超过了50%,说明超过一半左右的二氧化碳排放量是由中国的贸易伙伴国的进口需求引起的；(3)各制造业部门的出口隐含碳总量呈上升趋势。应提高主要出口隐含碳部门的生产技术,或选取恰当的可替代品进行生产并出口,以有效减少因出口而增加的国内碳排放；(4)规模效应对出口贸易隐含碳排放的增加起到正向作用,而技术效应对其有负向作用。最后提出了相应的政策建议。

Concentrating on input-output method, we propose the computing methods of direct carbon emission coefficient, complete carbon emission coefficient and embodied carbon of export trade. With the manufacturing industry of China as an example, we have measured the direct carbon emission coefficient, complete carbon emission coefficient and embodied carbon of export trade, and used structure decomposition analysis to disintegrate manufacturing export trade implicit carbon variation into: technical effect, structure effect and scale effect. we achieved a series of results: (1) Direct carbon emission coefficient and complete carbon emission coefficient all show a trend of decline, it shows that the policy of energy conservation and emissions reduction has achieved good results; (2) Export embodied carbon percentage points more than 50% of total carbon dioxide emissions between 2000-2007, it shows that more than half the carbon dioxide emissions are caused by the import demand of China's trading partners;(3) Embodied carbon of export trade of manufacturing industry shows a trend of increase. To reduce domestic carbon emissions, we should improve the production technology of main export department, and select appropriate alternatives for production and export; (4)Scale effect has a positive effect on the increase of export trade implicit carbon emissions, but the technology effect has a negative effect on it. At last, we give the suggestions.

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国家自然科学基金项目：环境规制下我国制造业转型升级研究（71173116）；教育部留学归国人员科研启动项目（教外司留【2013】693；中国制造业发展研究院2013年度开放课题：中国制造业贸易中隐含碳测算及其影响因素研究(SK20130090-3)；江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目:雾霾监测预警与防控。