技术进步与能源消费的经济门槛效应研究

Analysis on the Economic Threshold between Technical Progress and Energy Consumption

摘要:

能源紧缺成为我国可持续发展的重要障碍,技术进步作为有效降低能耗的手段之一,其效果在理论和现实中产生了重大的分歧。为探究技术进步与能源消费的内在关系,本文采用面板门槛回归方法,结合1990-2012年我国省际面板数据构建面板门槛回归模型,以经济发展水平为门槛变量,实证研究了技术进步对能源消费的影响。研究结果显示：技术进步对能源消费的影响存在显著的“经济门槛效应”,当经济发展水平高于门槛值时,虽然技术进步仍然会促进能源的消耗,但是技术进步对能源消费的推动作用会逐步减弱。由于我国地区间经济发展水平的差异,东部地区技术进步对能源消费的促进作用要小于中西部地区。

Abstract:

Energy shortage has been a major obstacle of economic and social sustainable development in China. As an effective means to reduce energy consumption, the effect of technical progress in theory is not consistent with reality. To explore the relation between technical progress and energy consumption, a threshold model is constructed with panel data of 29 provincial units from 1990 to 2012. The results show that there is significant economic threshold effect of technical progress on energy consumption. When economic level is higher than threshold value, although technical progress still promote the growth of energy consumption, the promoting effect is weakened. Due to the difference of China’ s regional economic level, the promoting effect in east is smaller than middle and west.