“波特假说”论证了环境规制和科技创新的关系,认为环境规制有利于科技的创新,且环境规制对科技创新的短期效应为负,而长期动态效应为正。本文运用安徽省的生产数据对农业领域环境规制对农业科技创新的传导机制进行了验证,并与波特假说进行了比较,分析了原因。文章建立了一个滞后变量回归模型验证了环境规制对农业科技创新的传导机制和传导效果,模型估计结果显示环境规制有利于农业科技创新,这和波特假说是一致的。但和波特假说不同的是,环境规制对农业科技创新的短期效应为正,长期动态效应(滞后1、2、3期)也为正。文章从农业科技创新的主体不同以及农业科技创新过程的复杂性和风险性方面对形成这一差异的原因进行了分析。在农业污染条件下,政府需要积极面对环境问题,主动进行科技创新,提高产品质量和竞争力以实现整个社会福利的最大化和社会经济效益的最优化。

"Potter hypothesis" demonstrates the relationship between environmental regulation and technological innovation,which environmental regulation is conducive to scientific and technological innovation,however the short-term effect on technology innovation and environmental regulation is negative, and the long-term dynamic effect is positive. The paper verified the conduction mechanism of environmental regulation on agricultural science and technology in agriculture innovation used by the productive data in Anhui Province, and compared with the Potter hypothesis, and analysis the cause of this.This paper developed a lagged variable regression model which verified the conductive mechanism and its effect on environmental regulation on science and technology innovation,and estimation results of the model show that environmental regulation is conducive to innovation of agricultural science and technology which is consistent with the Potter hypothesis,however, unlike the Potter hypothesis, the short-term effect of environmental regulation is positive,and the long-term dynamic effect (lag 1,2,3)is also positive .This paper analyzes the causes of the differences from the complexity of the subject of science and technology innovation and the different technology innovation process in agriculture. In the condition of agricultural pollution, the government must face the environmental problems,take the initiative to conduct the innovation of scientific and technological , and improve the quality and competitiveness of the product in order to achieve the maximization of social welfare and social economic benefits.

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