运用Laspeyres分解技术对我国产业系统碳生产率变动进行解析，以2000-2012为样本期，定量研究了产业系统碳生产率变动的影响因素，并从行业角度对碳生产率增长进行分析。结果表明，碳生产率增长主导因素是低碳技术进步，而碳排放空间流动的结构红利还不明显；就变动趋势而言，技术进步的贡献值在逐步降低，而结构优化贡献值逐渐上升。考虑到这一趋势，假设在技术出现饱和的情况下，可以通过市场机制实现产业系统的低碳化发展。

Using the Laspeyres index decomposition technology, this paper examines the influence on the change of China’s industrial system carbon productivity during the period 2000-2012. Research results show that the low-carbon technology progress has a positive impact on the carbon productivity growth, while the structure bonus caused by the transfer of carbon space resource is non-significant. In terms of development tendency, the contribution value of low-carbon technological progress is reducing step by step, rather, this of structure optimization is increasing. Therefore, assume that there is a condition of the technology in saturated, the market mechanism should be considered to realize industrial system low-carbon development.

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国家自然科学基金项目：基于非期望产出率熵变的产业系统减排机理与碳减排产别责任研究(71173094)；全国统计科研计划一般项目：动态时序视角下考虑碳约束的内生经济增长模型扩展及其应用(2012LY184)。