基于对我国种植业科研机构及其科技人力资源情况的深入分析,研究运用协整检验和Granger因果检验等方法,探讨了种植业科研机构科技人员结构、人力资本、科技人员流动与农业经济发展的关系,主要得出以下结论：第一,种植业科研机构科技人员结构、人力资本、科技人员流动与农业经济发展均为一阶单整序列。第二,农业经济发展序列与科技人力资源序列存在长期均衡和短期动态关系,当短期动态关系偏离时,将以90.18%的力度调整至均衡状态。第三,女性科技人员比重与人力资本的增加均对农业经济发展具有正面影响,科技人员流动对农业经济发展影响不明显,甚至具有微负面效应。第四,种植业科研机构科技人员结构与农业经济发展,农业经济发展与科技人员流入、人力资本均存在单向因果关系；农业经济发展与科技人员流出之间因果关系得不到实证支持。据此,研究提出了充分发挥科技人力资源优势,促进农业经济发展的建议。

With the deep analysis on the status of planting research institutes and their human resources in China, the article discussed the relationships between the structure, movement of technologists, human capital and agricultural economic development based on the co-integration test and Granger causality effect examination. The results showed that: firstly, the structure, movement of technologists, human capital and agricultural economic development all belonged to single integer sequences. Secondly, there were long-term equilibrium and short-term dynamic relationships between the sequences of agricultural economic development and technology human capital. There would have much strength with 90.18% to adjust the short-term dynamic relation when it deviated from the status of long-term equilibrium. Thirdly, the increasing of female technologists and human capital had positive impact on the development of agricultural economy. However, there was not an obvious effect of the flow of technologists on the agricultural economic development, and even a micro negative effect. Finally, there were one-way causations between the structure of technologists and the development of agricultural economy, agricultural economic development and the flow of the technologists, human capital. But the causation could get the empirical support between agricultural economic development and the outflow of the technologists. Based on the analyses and results, we gave some suggestion to optimize the allocation of human resources of technologists and to promote the development of agricultural economy.

国家自然科学基金项目（面上项目，重点项目，重大项目）;国家教育部优秀青年教师基金