我国养猪业碳排放时空特征及因素分解研究*

Research on temporal and spatial characteristics of carbon emissions and influencing factors decomposition in pig industry in China

摘要:

本文从实现我国碳减排目标和养猪业可持续发展的角度出发,分析了我国养猪业碳排放与经济发展的时空关系,并对养猪业碳排放的影响因素进行了分解。研究结果表明：(1)纵向来看,我国养猪业碳排放总量基本呈现“上升—下降—上升”的三阶段特征,碳排放强度随着养猪业生产总值的变化表现出一定的波动性；(2)横向来看,中部地区养猪业经济发展对碳排放的影响最小,西部地区碳排放强度最高,养猪业经济发展对碳排放的影响最大,东部地区碳排放强度介于中西部之间；(3)效率因素在一定程度上抑制了养猪业碳排放,与2000年相比,2001-2012年累计实现了38.61%的碳减排；劳动力因素和经济因素对养猪业碳排放都具有一定的促进作用,分别累计产生了1.57%和57.62%的碳增量。可见,经济因素是造成我国养猪业碳排放增加的主要因素。最后根据研究结论提出了相应的碳减排建议。

Abstract:

From the perspective of achieving carbon emission reduction targets as well as the sustainable development of pig industry in China, this article analyzed the temporal and spatial relationship between carbon emissions and economic development of the pig industry, and then make a further discussion on decomposed factors that influencing carbon emissions of pig industry. The results showed that: (1)studying vertically, the total carbon emissions of the pig industry roughly presented a three- phase characteristic, that is intensity in pig industry fluctuate according to the economic development;(2)whereas looking horizontally, the impact of economic development on pig industry"s carbon emissions in the central regions is the smallest compared with that in the western areas where economic development had the biggest effect on carbon emission, the situation just between these two places in eastern area;(3)The efficiency factor slowed down carbon emissions in pig industry to some extent as we can see that reduction in carbon emission during 2001 and 2012 has reached to 38.61% compared with the year 2000,however,both labor and economic factors have positive effects on carbon emissions, they accounted for 1.57% and 57.62% of the total carbon increment respectively. To sum up, economic factor is the main cause of incensement in carbon emissions of pig industry .Finally, the corresponding carbon reduction recommendations based on research findings were put forward.